Warriors vs. Bucks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Jan. 13 best bets from model on 52-28 run

Two of the NBA’s top teams face off at Fiserv Forum on Thursday as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Golden State Warriors in a cross-conference showdown. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons as the Warriors are 30-10 and 12-7 on the road, with the Bucks sitting at 13-7 in home games and 26-17 overall. Draymond Green (calf) and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors, with Jrue Holiday (ankle) and Brook Lopez (back) out for the Bucks. George Hill (protocols) is listed as questionable for Milwaukee.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a one-point home favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 224.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Warriors vs. Bucks match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model entered Week 13 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 52-28 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Bucks, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Bucks vs. Warriors:

• Warriors vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -1
• Warriors vs. Bucks over-under: 224.5 points
• Warriors vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -115, Warriors -105
• GSW: The Warriors are 9-9-1 against the spread in road games
• MIL: The Bucks are 7-13 against the spread in home games

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State’s defense is unquestionably elite. The Warriors lead the NBA in defensive rating, giving up only 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Golden State also leads the league in field-goal percentage allowed at 42.6 percent, with top-three rankings in 3-point percentage allowed (32.7 percent), assists allowed (21.6 per game) and steals (9.6 per game). The Warriors are strong on the defensive glass, securing 74 percent of available rebounds, and the offense is also potent. 

Golden State scores more than 1.1 points per possession, leading the NBA in assist percentage at 69.4 percent. The Warriors are No. 2 in the NBA in assists per game (27.9), with top-five marks in true shooting percentage (57.9 percent) and 3-pointers per game (14.2). The Bucks are allowing 14.1 3-pointers per game on defense, playing into the hands of Golden State’s perimeter-based attack.

Why the Bucks can cover

The reigning NBA champion Bucks are stellar on both ends of the floor. Milwaukee is out-scoring opponents by 3.7 points per 100 possessions, even with the Bucks operating without key pieces at various times during the season, and Mike Budenholzer’s team sports a +5.0 net rating in home games. The Bucks have a stellar true shooting mark of 56.7 percent on offense, making 14.3 three-pointers per game and shooting 36.0 percent from three-point distance.

Milwaukee also does a stellar job on the offensive glass, producing 14.1 second-chance points while securing more than 27 percent of available rebounds. Defensively, the Bucks give up fewer than 1.08 points per possession, with opponents shooting just 44.1 percent from the floor and 33.7 percent from three-point range. Milwaukee is also excellent at preventing free throw attempts, allowing only 19.2 per game.

How to make Bucks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.